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Scenario planning in events:

A strategic and evidence-based approach

The events industry is highly sensitive to external shocks, from political instability and climate change to technological disruptions. Traditional forecasting methods often fail because they assume a relatively stable environment. Scenario planning, developed in the 1970s by organisations such as Shell (Wack, 1985), offers a more robust approach by exploring multiple plausible futures rather than predicting a single outcome.

What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning is a systematic method for developing and analysing narratives about possible futures (Schoemaker, 1995). In the context of MICE events, it enables organisers to anticipate uncertainty, strengthen resilience, and design adaptive strategies that safeguard both operational continuity and participant experience.

Step-by-step framework for events

1. Identify the context Define the scope of the event (conference, exhibition, incentive, meeting) and articulate the key strategic objectives. This step clarifies what is “at stake” and frames the subsequent analysis.

2. Analyse critical uncertainties Use structured tools such as PESTEL analysis (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal) or SWOT analysis to identify high-impact uncertainties. Example: global travel restrictions, fluctuations in energy prices, or the reliability of hybrid technology platforms.

3. Construct scenarios:

  • Linear scenarios: Develop optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic projections.

  • 2×2 matrix model: Position the two most critical uncertainties on independent axes to generate four distinct scenarios. This method provides clarity and contrast, avoiding overly similar futures.

4. Develop strategic responses For each scenario, define adaptations in programme design, logistics, stakeholder engagement, and communication strategies. Research highlights that flexible “pre-commitments” (Courtney, 2003) enable faster decision-making when uncertainty materialises.

5. Establish decision points Identify leading indicators (e.g. government regulations, registration trends, technological reliability) that function as “early warning signals.” These trigger a switch from one scenario pathway to another.

6. Engage stakeholders Literature on risk communication (Renn, 2008) shows that transparent engagement reduces resistance and builds trust. Including stakeholders in scenario development not only strengthens legitimacy but also enhances collective preparedness.

Example: 2×2 scenario framework for MICE events

  • X-axis: Economic climate (Strong growth ↔ Recession)

  • Y-axis: Sustainability regulations (Low ↔ High)

Resulting scenarios

1. Strong growth + low regulations → Booming but unsustainable

International conferences expand rapidly, with high investment in luxury experiences, but limited attention to sustainability. High risk of reputational damage.

2. Strong growth + high regulations → Green prosperity

The MICE sector thrives in a strong economy, but only organisations that integrate sustainability at their core remain competitive. Strong innovation in circular event models.

3. Recession + low Regulations → Survival mode

Reduced budgets lead to smaller-scale events. Organisers focus on cost-cutting and minimising international travel.

4. Recession + high regulations → Green but fragile

Strict regulations limit traditional event models, while the weak economy leaves little room for investment. Hybrid or community-based events become the main solution.

Benefits for MICE practice

Research (Chermack, 2011) confirms that scenario planning enhances organisational learning and decision-making under uncertainty. For MICE organisers this translates into:

  • Greater operational resilience in volatile contexts.

  • Higher stakeholder confidence through transparent preparation.

  • Enhanced ability to protect value creation across different futures.

In From Experience to Purpose I show that foresight is essential in the MICE industry. With scenario planning, organisers can stay resilient and keep creating real value, no matter what the future brings.